英文听译在附加内容里，有兴趣者请留言后自取，然后发到 talk [at] apple4.us，我们会负责校对。
This video is for internal NeXT use only. Thank you in advance for not sharing it with non-NeXT members.
Hi, for those who don't know me, my name is Steve Jobs. And this is the first one of the many chalk talks we're gonna have this year together. The subject of this one is really important, which is: who's our target customer? Why are they selecting our products over our competitions? And what distribution channels are we going to use to reach these customers?
A lot of light bulbs have come out of last ninety days. And I had the good fortune to be with a lot of you on the field, meeting customers and getting first-hand information as what they're doing with our products. You have fed a lot of information to the management of this company. We've done a lot of thinking and looked at the data and all the sudden out of this data some very very important things have come to light. I want to share them with you today.
We've had historically a very hard time figuring out exactly who our customer was. Let me show you why. When we first look at the workstation marketplace, it's something like this. And the biggest player, as you know, in the workstation marketplace is SUN. The second biggest player is HP Apollo. The third biggest player is DEC. And IBM, with their RS/6000, is now in this game as well. And then, outside the workstation marketplace, the very large market for PCs and Macintoshes is the traditional personal computer market.
Now, when we look at the workstation marketplace, we've said, "Whoa, we have multitasking. We have great networking just like the workstations. We use UNIX. We have a pretty good development environment." So we are a lot like these folks. But then, again, these folks don't really care about the user interface. Or, at least they haven't been able to execute on it if they do. They don't really have great third-party application software. And these are not machines for mere mortals. So, we're not like them at all.
Then, we look at the PCs. And we do strive to get sweet application software to allow us just to be like these folks. We do strive to attain ease of use and actually are easier to use than even the Macintosh today. So, we're a lot like these folks, but then, again, we have multitasking and networking. That is an order of magnitude beyond what you can do with the PC today.
So, over the last year, we've oscillated back and forth between thinking that the PC and Mac were the competitors and this is where we wanna to be, or the workstation were our competitors and this is where we wanna to be. In essence, are we an easier-to-use workstation or are we a more powerful PC?
And had it not been for a revelation, if you will, five or six months ago, we would probably be still oscillating today. What the revelation was was somebody turned up the power of our microscope a little bit. And we saw something very important. What we saw was the workstation marketplace is really not just one workstation marketplace, but two.
There's a traditional half, which is, we've come to know a lot, the Science and Engineering, which does indeed look like this. But there's a new half emerging, which we're calling the Professional half. That is professionals that are not scientists and engineers, who want the power of workstations. And inside this marketplace, there're several submarkets: publishing, the high-end publishing market -- tech-pubs; medical, a lot of database-driven applications; higher education, etc etc etc. Legal market is in here. Many many markets are in here.
What's very interesting is SUN is the only company that seems to have eaten out a bit over here. And our data says that, in 1990, SUN sold around 40,000 computers in this market and had about 80% market share. So the entire professional workstation market in 1990 was about 50,000 units and SUN has the majority share. That's why we didn't see it before. It was such a small blip, compared to the workstation marketplace or the PC marketplace, that it didn't show up on our radar screen. But we've seen it now, and it's good we have because this is the marketplace we can dominate and it's a marketplace that's going to be very large. The market research data we have, and also our gut feelings from our many many years in the industry, says this marketplace, in 1991, is gonna grow to 100,000 units in size. It's gonna double this year. And next year, in 1992, it's going to triple to about 300,000 units. That's a substantial marketplace.
What is, also, exciting about this marketplace is that 100% of our volume goes in here. In another words, if we could ship 50,000 computers in all these market this year, we would have 50% market share in one of the fastest growing segment in the entire computer history.
Now, let's examine why this thing is gonna grow and what is gonna cause this thing to grow from 50,000 to 100,000 and to 300,000 units. Clearly, it is not these people deciding to stop being engineers and go to business school and reemerge over here. That's not how It's gonna grow. It's gonna grow from two factors.
Number one, these folks moving in, PC and Mac owners deciding that they need more sophisticated networking and more sophisticated development environment, etc, deciding they need to step up to workstations.
And one of the classic users. There're a lot of people now using 3270 terminals or terminal emulators hooked up to a mainframe for database-driven applications. More and more, they're deciding to move their applications on to a powerful desktop workstation connected via networking to the mainframe so that they can get the application out of the mainframe and on the desktop for more rapid development, for better user interface and for better economics.
So, these two factors are what's going to cause this market to increase almost an order of magnitude in size over the next 24 months. And we can get half of it!
Now, one of the things that's very interesting is that SUN is today the major participant in this market, who had 80% market share. I personally don't see too many other people being able to move into this marketplace over the next few years. I believe that SUN will remain our major competitor. The funny thing is while we're convincing these people using PCs and Macs and these people using 3270 terminal or equivalence to move into the Professional workstation segment. SUN is, if you will, our friend because they're gonna spend their marketing money to convince people to move into this segment. But the minute they make their choice to move into the segment, whether we convince them or SUN convinces them, Sun and NeXT, are mortal enemies.
And the good news, which we talk about the minute, is that we've had a chance to suit up against SUN with our new products about 15 times in the last ninety days. And we've won 15 out of 15.
Now, we wanna address what is compelling these people to move in to this new category of Professional workstations. Secondly, once they decide to make a move into the category, why are we gonna beat SUN? Let's take a look. There're three primary reasons.
The first one is that every single customer we've talked to here has the need to write one custom application. They got one mission-critical app that they've got to write. So, the development environment becomes critical. In addition to that, these applications are very network intensive. So, they need very sophisticated networking capabilities, which they cannot find in PCs and Macs. Third, these applications primarily are database-driven, which means that they want to write the application on the desktop machine, but this application on the desktop machine through the sophisticated networking is going to communicate with SQL database running on either an IBM mainframe or running on Oracle or Sybase on a SQL machine or something like that. So they need the sophistication of the networking and the ability to seamlessly talk to databases running on large servers.